The US Open begins its main draw on August 30 with a record $108 million in total player compensation, and both singles champions guaranteed $5.5 million — but the more interesting story this year is who isn’t there, and who’s returning from injury to try to defend a title they won at full strength.
The men’s draw: an unfamiliar top seed
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is out with a knee injury, which reshuffles the entire men’s seeding in a way that hasn’t happened at a hard-court major in some time — Alexander Zverev inherits the top seed by default rather than by having taken it from Sinner on court. Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is seeded second, but arrives under real question marks of his own: this is his first tournament back since a right-wrist injury in Barcelona sidelined him for nearly four months. A defending champion returning from a four-month layoff, at a Slam he won at full strength the year before, is exactly the kind of storyline that makes early-round matches worth watching closely rather than waiting for the second week.
The rest of the men’s top ten is a genuine mix of generations: Felix Auger-Aliassime, Novak Djokovic still competing at the top level, Flavio Cobolli, Alex de Minaur, Daniil Medvedev, Ben Shelton, Taylor Fritz, and Arthur Fils — who arrives fresh off winning his first ATP Masters 1000 title at Cincinnati, a result we broke down in detail in how Arthur Fils answered Frances Tiafoe’s comeback. Fils’ Cincinnati win was built specifically on his ability to absorb a full momentum swing mid-match and still close it out — precisely the kind of composure a best-of-five Grand Slam draw is designed to test far more thoroughly than a best-of-three Masters final.
The women’s draw: Sabalenka defends, Rybakina in doubt
Aryna Sabalenka enters as the top seed and two-time defending champion, the clearest favorite in either draw by most reckonings. Elena Rybakina sits second in the seeding, but with real doubt attached to her participation and form — a genuine variable at the top of the draw rather than a settled certainty. Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff, Mirra Andreeva, Linda Noskova, Karolina Muchova, Iga Swiatek, Elina Svitolina and Amanda Anisimova round out the top ten.
Gauff and Pegula both arrive with recent, direct history worth knowing: they met in the Cincinnati final just days ago, the first all-American women’s final at that tournament in 56 years, which Gauff won after a fast start against a visibly fatigued Pegula — see how Coco Gauff beat a fatigued Jessica Pegula for the full breakdown. Both players now carry the physical toll of that tournament into a considerably longer, higher-stakes event, which makes recovery and draw placement a real factor worth tracking beyond just seeding position.
What to actually watch for
The single biggest variable in either draw is how Alcaraz’s body holds up across best-of-five matches after four months away — a wrist injury specifically threatens the exact shot-making his game depends on, and the tournament’s depth means he can’t simply play his way into form against weak opposition the way a lower-stakes event might allow. On the women’s side, Rybakina’s fitness and Pegula’s recovery from a physically demanding Cincinnati run are the clearest form questions hanging over the draw’s top half.
We’ll be back with full match analysis once the tournament is underway — for now, this is the field as it actually stands heading into August 30.
